Despite their cultural and ecological significance, western Washington prairies are one of the most endangered ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. The Nisqually people, who are the original stewards of the prairies and waters surrounding the Nisqually River, historically used prairies to graze horses as well as to harvest camas, bracken fern and other wild foods. Prescribed fire was used as a tool to support these harvests, and as such, the prairies support several species that thrive after disturbance, including the state-endangered streaked horned lark.

Because larks rely on the same prairies year after year for breeding habitat, their presence serves as an indicator for the health of prairie-oak systems in western Washington. In the last century, however, the prairies of western Washington and the species that rely on them have been threatened by the introduction of invasive plants, forest encroachment and urban development. Stressors associated with climate change, like increasing heat and modified habitat conditions, present additional potential threats to these birds.

Through this project, Abby will use population models to estimate the impacts of these stressors on larks. The project team is particularly interested in understanding the effects of temperature on nest success, nestling growth rates and subsequent juvenile survival. The results of this modeling will be used to predict the future persistence of larks on western Washington prairies under alternative management strategies and climate scenarios. Understanding how larks are affected by climate change will allow them to determine what factors inhibit lark survival and what management actions may buffer these effects. The project team will make recommendations to managers of critical prairie habitat such as that on Joint Base Lewis-McChord and regional airports in order to support lark populations and enhance monitoring efforts across their range.