Sagebrush shrublands and sagebrush-steppe cover a vast portion of the American West, stretching from the Great Plains to the eastern slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the Cascades Range. The foundation species at the heart of these ecosystems, sagebrush, has undergone substantial and ongoing decline, currently occupying just 56% of its historical range. As a result, the remaining sagebrush systems are fragmented and less able to support the wildlife and soils that have long characterized rangelands, particularly in the Great Basin.

Key factors influencing shifts in the distribution of sagebrush—and other associated rangeland plant species—include changes in fire patterns, invasive species dynamics, human land use and the warming climate. Characterizing how these overlapping disturbances influence species abundance and distribution is critical for land management decision-making, but the specific interactions between these disturbances and sagebrush systems remain poorly understood.

To address this gap, Fiona is working with Bureau of Land Management scientists and fire experts to build a model of key rangeland plant species distributions that explicitly accounts for fire histories, restoration treatments and invasive species interactions. The model’s outputs and associated maps will ideally clarify the outcomes of the Bureau of Land Management’s restoration efforts in the region, and may help inform management views and decisions with respect to wildfire, invasive species and land treatments. The outputs of this modeling effort can help inform coordinated conservation actions to maintain and enhance sagebrush ecosystems’ resistance and resilience to ongoing disturbance regime shifts, both now and into the future.