As climate change brings longer, drier summers with more frequent and severe droughts across the Western U.S., it is becoming clear that national forest and rangeland management policy has created local social ecological systems (SES) in which ranchers are increasingly vulnerable to these changes. Although land management policies in the Western U.S. have been based on the best available science, new knowledge about ecological complexity and the influence of social pressures on the harvest of natural resources point to how some historical management practices have degraded the ecological condition of both forest and rangeland habitats.  This has made them more sensitive to longer, drier summers and drought. At the same time, funding and personnel shortages have hampered government agencies from updating management policies to match the new science, so restrictive regulations persist that reduce the capacity of ranchers to adapt grazing strategies in an increasingly arid climate. Changes to land tenure and use patterns are also closing historical private grazing lands to ranching and livestock use, further reducing adaptive capacity.

In response, this project will build on Kyle’s previous work to collaboratively develop a community-based rangeland assessment and monitoring system (CBRAMS) for Wallowa County, Oregon, focused on rangelands resource management. The CBRAMS integrates local knowledge from ranchers, U.S. Forest Service data and results from computer models to produce forage forecasting maps that detail the plant matter available to livestock and other herbivores for grazing. The combination of observations and model results in the CBRAMS provide a clearer picture of grazing and climate impacts on rangeland health. Kyle’s NW CASC research will focus on making the CBRAMS a lasting program sustained by stakeholders, improving its information and expanding it regionally to include the needs of nearby counties, the Bureau of Land Management and the Nez Perce Tribe.

The first information product created by the CBRAMS program is the Wallowa County Livestock Early Warning System (WC-LEWS) website. As work continues to improve this system’s accuracy and utility through stakeholder feedback, the U.S Forest Service and the local Oregon State University Extension Service office are promoting the CBRAMS and ranchers have already used the WC-LEWS forage forecasts to adapt to 2021 drought conditions. The increased adaptive capacity provided by the improved CBRAMS/WC-LEWS will foster local management that improves ecological conditions and decreases sensitivity to climate change impacts. Such positive management outcomes can be used to support recent policy changes in the U.S. Forest Service intended to loosen regulations and allow for community-based control of natural and cultural resources.