Forests serve an important ecological, cultural and economic role in the Pacific Northwest. Forest management, such as forest thinning and post-fire replanting, is traditionally done with the goal of returning forests to a “natural range of variability”, which is informed by pre-fire-suppression forest conditions rooted in the late 19^th– early 20^th century. However, with the changing climate, changing land use and new species introductions, restoring forests to a state (or range of states) rooted in past conditions may not be feasible or productive. To manage forests with the changing climate in mind, we need a climate-informed range of target conditions for forest management. 

In collaboration with The Nature Conservancy-Oregon, Oregon Department of Forestry, Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service, Svetlana will project mid- to late-21^st century forest type distribution for Oregon and characterize the range of possible future forest conditions for each target location. This information is intended to inform forest management in the face of climate change. For example, the projections of future forest type distribution could help managers prioritize post-disturbance restoration in areas where restoration is likely to be most successful. There may be some locations where forests grew prior to a wildfire (or another disturbance), but that no longer support forest recovery due to changed climate conditions. Tree seedlings planted in these areas are likely to fail. The projections developed through this project will highlight areas that are likely to transition to a non-forest vegetation type, or where forests are expected to substantially change in composition or structure following a high-severity disturbance event. Other uses of future forest type distribution include setting climate-informed forest management targets and educating staff and public about anticipated climate impacts. Svetlana hopes that developing these products in collaboration with their intended end-users will allow them to be more useful!