In Washington, climate change is rapidly altering montane habitats and the species that depend on them, including cold-adapted, large mammals such as the Canada lynx (hereafter “lynx”) and moose. Lynx and moose are especially sensitive to climate-induced changes like decreasing snowpack, increasing severity and frequency of wildfires, and increasing temperatures. These changes may also benefit their warm-adapted counterparts like bobcats and white-tailed deer. These counterpart species play similar roles to lynx and moose in montane ecosystems and have the potential to displace them through competition or disease. The combination of climate change benefiting warm adapted counterpart species and threatening cold adapted species paints a concerning picture for lynx and moose in Washington. Despite these known threats, studies addressing baseline population metrics for lynx and moose, such as density (i.e., the number of individuals per square kilometer) or occupancy (i.e., presence/absence), are lacking in Washington. Additionally, as temperatures continue to increase, there is an urgent need to identify climate refugia — areas relatively buffered from the impacts of climate change — for lynx and moose during periods of thermal stress.

To address these research gaps, Sujay will collaborate with the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) and the Washington Department of Natural Resources to explore how climate change is influencing lynx and moose populations in the Loomis State Forest (LSF) of north central Washington. Sujay’s research will estimate past changes in occupancy for lynx and moose; predict future changes in occupancy for lynx and moose; and estimate density for lynx and a warm-adapted counterpart (bobcat). Sujay will then synthesize information obtained from occupancy and density analyses to identify climate refugia for lynx and moose.

Sujay expects to develop maps portraying past and future changes in lynx and moose occupancy, along with a model predicting density of lynx and bobcats across LSF. He will overlay these two maps to identify areas of climate refugia for lynx and moose. Findings from this study will directly relate to species management decisions. For example, WDFW and game managers may use maps from Sujay’s research to identify priority areas for monitoring lynx and moose populations, modify moose hunting permits, and recommend habitat improvements for both species in areas that are not currently identified as climate refugia. Additionally, areas identified through this project as climate refugia for lynx could receive exempt status from bobcat trapping and/or hunting to minimize accidental take of lynx.